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Conference Finals Predictions

Unfortunately I am kind of short on time these days so I have to keep these predictions brief. In the west, if Osgood continues to give the Wings good goaltending I think Detroit wins this series fairly easily. Dallas will still pull out a couple wins based on Turco’s stellar goaltending but I’ll predict Detroit in 6. In the east I like Pittsburgh. The Flyers have really been saved by some solid goaltending from Martin Biron and a sputtering Montreal power play. I think Pittsburgh’s two lines of top talent will give the Penguins a big edge. Pittsburgh in 5.

For more analysis of the series see stars.hockeyanalysis.com and penguins.hockeyanalysis.com. If any Detroit or Philadelphia fans want to contribute drop me a message.

1. Dallas at Detroit

   	Dallas (road)	Detroit (home)
   Predicted Winner	Detroit (Good)
   Fair Odds	+128	-139
   Overall Record	45-30-7	54-21-7
   Home/Road Record	22-14-5	29-9-3
   Last 10 Games	3-5-2	7-2-1
   Past Games	2008/01/02: Dallas 1 at Detroit 4 2008/01/05: Detroit 3 at Dallas 0 2008/02/17: Detroit 0 at Dallas 1 2008/03/13: Dallas 3 at Detroit 5

2. Philadelphia at Pittsburgh

   	Philadelphia (road)	Pittsburgh (home)
   Predicted Winner	Pittsburgh (Some)
   Fair Odds	+120	-126
   Overall Record	42-29-11	47-27-8
   Home/Road Record	21-15-5	26-10-5
   Last 10 Games	7-2-1	6-3-1
   Past Games	2007/11/07: Philadelphia 3 at Pittsburgh 1 2007/11/10: Pittsburgh 2 at Philadelphia 5 2007/12/11: Pittsburgh 2 at Philadelphia 8 2008/01/24: Pittsburgh 3 at Philadelphia 4 2008/02/10: Philadelphia 3 at Pittsburgh 4 2008/03/16: Philadelphia 1 at Pittsburgh 7 2008/04/02: Philadelphia 2 at Pittsburgh 4 2008/04/06: Pittsburgh 0 at Philadelphia 2

Second round predictions

1. Dallas at San Jose

   	Dallas (road)	San Jose (home)
   Predicted Winner	San Jose (Some)
   Fair Odds	+125	-133
   Overall Record	45-30-7	49-23-10
   Home/Road Record	22-14-5	22-13-6
   Last 10 Games	3-5-2	7-2-1
   Past Games	2007/10/29: San Jose 4 at Dallas 2 2007/11/07: Dallas 3 at San Jose 1 2007/11/14: San Jose 4 at Dallas 3 (SO) 2007/12/05: San Jose 3 at Dallas 2 2007/12/15: Dallas 4 at San Jose 2 2008/01/17: Dallas 4 at San Jose 2 2008/03/27: Dallas 2 at San Jose 3 (OT) 2008/04/06: San Jose 2 at Dallas 4

   My opinion: This is an interesting secound round matchup since it features two teams who have each had dissapointing playoffs in recent years. On paper San Jose is probably the better team but they may not be as rested having gone 7 games against Calgary. I think home ice will serve the Sharks well though so I’ll predict Sharks in another long 7 game series.

2. Colorado at Detroit

   	Colorado (road)	Detroit (home)
   Predicted Winner	Detroit (Good)
   Fair Odds	+132	-148
   Overall Record	44-31-7	54-21-7
   Home/Road Record	17-19-5	29-9-3
   Last 10 Games	5-4-1	7-2-1
   Past Games	2007/12/27: Detroit 4 at Colorado 2 2008/01/08: Colorado 0 at Detroit 1 2008/02/01: Colorado 0 at Detroit 2 2008/02/18: Detroit 4 at Colorado 0

   My opinion: This is another very intriging matchup as it features a renewal of an old rivalry and while many of the players have changed some core players on both teams remain and although neither team really plays with a physical edge, I am sure some of that old rivalry will resurface. Detroit is better on defense with Lidstrom and crew but Colorado probably has an edge up front with more offensive depth. The key to this series is likely to be goaltending as the Avalanche hope Theodore can continue his resurgent season and the Wings hope that Osgood can carry the reigns as it seems age has finally creeped up on Hasek. Prediction: Avalanche in 6.

3. Philadelphia at Montreal

   	Philadelphia (road)	Montreal (home)
   Predicted Winner	Montreal (Strong)
   Fair Odds	+146	-187
   Overall Record	42-29-11	47-25-10
   Home/Road Record	21-15-5	22-13-6
   Last 10 Games	7-2-1	8-1-1
   Past Games	2007/11/01: Philadelphia 2 at Montreal 5 2007/12/13: Montreal 4 at Philadelphia 1 2008/02/16: Philadelphia 0 at Montreal 1 2008/02/17: Montreal 5 at Philadelphia 3

   My opinion: This series features a small, speedy skilled team in Montreal vs a bigger and more physical team in the Flyers. The key to this series will be for Montreal to get a quick start to the series and try and end the series early. If they don’t I think Philadelphia will wear them down over the course of a long series and should it go 6 or 7 games I like Philadelphia’s chances. To be perfectly honest, I am not a fan of either of these teams and if I had a choice I would hope they would both lose. But since one of them has to win I’ll choose Philadelphia in 6 if only because Montreal (the city) doesn’t deserve to win after the behaviour shown from some of their ‘fans’ after game 7 against Boston.

4. NY Rangers at Pittsburgh

   	NY Rangers (road)	Pittsburgh (home)
   Predicted Winner	Pittsburgh (Some)
   Fair Odds	+121	-128
   Overall Record	42-27-13	47-27-8
   Home/Road Record	17-14-10	26-10-5
   Last 10 Games	5-1-4	6-3-1
   Past Games	2007/10/23: NY Rangers 0 at Pittsburgh 1 2007/11/08: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 4 2007/11/17: NY Rangers 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT) 2007/12/18: Pittsburgh 0 at NY Rangers 4 2008/01/14: NY Rangers 1 at Pittsburgh 4 2008/03/18: Pittsburgh 2 at NY Rangers 5 2008/03/30: NY Rangers 1 at Pittsburgh 3 2008/03/31: Pittsburgh 1 at NY Rangers 2 (OT)

   My opinion: The Rangers goaltending and defense defense vs Pittsburghs offense. It is an interesting matchup. Typically goaltending and defense win (see the success of the New Jersey Devils over the past 15 years) but the Penguins are loaded with star players so the defense wins rule may be tossed out the window. I like the Rangers but I wonder if they have enough offense to win agaist a strong offensive team like Pittsburgh. My gut also tells me that this is Pittsburgh’s year. So with that in mind I’ll predict Pittsburgh in 6.

First Round Predictions

Here are my predictions for the first round of the playoffs. Beyond that I am predicting San Jose over Pittsburgh in the Stanley Cup Finals.

1. Dallas at Anaheim

   	Dallas (road)	Anaheim (home)
   Predicted Winner	Anaheim (Some)
   Fair Odds	+121	-126
   Overall Record	45-30-7	47-27-8
   Home/Road Record	22-14-5	28-9-4
   Last 10 Games	3-5-2	8-2-0
   Since Trade Deadline	5-8-2	11-4-1
   Past Games	2007/10/20: Anaheim 1 at Dallas 3 2007/11/05: Dallas 5 at Anaheim 0 2007/11/21: Anaheim 1 at Dallas 2 2008/01/15: Dallas 2 at Anaheim 4 2008/01/20: Anaheim 2 at Dallas 5 2008/02/15: Dallas 4 at Anaheim 2 2008/03/19: Anaheim 2 at Dallas 1 2008/03/30: Dallas 2 at Anaheim 3 (SO)

   My Prediction: Both Anaheim and Dallas play a tight defensive system but with the return of Selanne and Niedermayer the Ducks have the edge offensively and that should be enough to give them the series. For Dallas to win Brad Richards really has to play well and above what he has contributed so far in Dallas (or in Tampa this season). Anaheim in 6.

2. Colorado at Minnesota

   	Colorado (road)	Minnesota (home)
   Predicted Winner	Minnesota (Some)
   Fair Odds	+124	-132
   Overall Record	44-31-7	44-28-10
   Home/Road Record	17-19-5	25-11-5
   Last 10 Games	5-4-1	6-2-2
   Since Trade Deadline	12-5-1	10-4-5
   Past Games	2007/10/21: Colorado 2 at Minnesota 3 2007/10/28: Minnesota 1 at Colorado 3 2007/11/11: Minnesota 2 at Colorado 4 2007/11/18: Colorado 1 at Minnesota 4 2008/01/24: Minnesota 3 at Colorado 2 2008/03/17: Colorado 1 at Minnesota 3 2008/03/30: Colorado 2 at Minnesota 3 (OT) 2008/04/06: Minnesota 3 at Colorado 4 (SO)

   My Prediction: I believe that Minnesota is likely the better team but don’t count Colorado out as they have an abundance of offensive game breakers in Forsberg, Sakic, Smyth, Stastny, etc. to take this series. The two keys to the series will be whether they can solve the Wild’s defensive system and whether Theodore (or Budaj) can provide consistent and good enough goaltending. The key for Minnesota will be generating enough offense. This series really could go either way but I’ll give the edge to Colorado. Colorado in 7.

3. Calgary at San Jose

   	Calgary (road)	San Jose (home)
   Predicted Winner	San Jose (Some)
   Fair Odds	-100	+100
   Overall Record	42-30-10	49-23-10
   Home/Road Record	21-19-1	22-13-6
   Last 10 Games	5-5-0	7-2-1
   Since Trade Deadline	9-8-1	16-2-2
   Past Games	2007/10/22: San Jose 4 at Calgary 1 2008/01/03: Calgary 3 at San Jose 2 (OT) 2008/01/30: San Jose 4 at Calgary 5 2008/02/12: Calgary 4 at San Jose 3 (OT)

   My Prediction: This series features one of the hottest teams in the league against an up and down team that hasn’t proven consistent enough to really get consideration as a true Stanley Cup contender. We all know how great San Jose has been since acquiring Brian Campbell and a large part of Calgary’s inconsistencies can be blamed on Mikka Kiprusoff’s poor play. But we all know what Kiprusoff is capable of so that should worry the Sharks. If Kiprusoff gets hot he and Iginla are capable of taking the Flames a long way. But in the end the Sharks are just playing too good to overcome. San Jose in 6.

4. Nashville at Detroit

   	Nashville (road)	Detroit (home)
   Predicted Winner	Detroit (Some)
   Fair Odds	+103	-103
   Overall Record	41-32-9	54-21-7
   Home/Road Record	18-18-5	29-9-3
   Last 10 Games	6-3-1	7-2-1
   Since Trade Deadline	9-8-1	12-4-1
   Past Games	2007/11/07: Nashville 2 at Detroit 3 (SO) 2007/11/22: Detroit 2 at Nashville 3 2007/12/10: Detroit 2 at Nashville 1 2008/02/12: Detroit 2 at Nashville 4 2008/03/09: Nashville 3 at Detroit 4 2008/03/15: Nashville 3 at Detroit 1 2008/03/20: Detroit 6 at Nashville 3 2008/03/30: Nashville 0 at Detroit 1 (OT)

   My Prediction: Except for the stretch around Lidstrom’s injury Detroit has been by far the best team in the league over the course of the season but they aren’t without a few question marks that make them a potential upset victom. The key concern is whether Hasek has enough left for another Cup run and/or wether Osgood has it in him. Generally Osgood has been the better goalie this year but he has been considered the backup so who knows how this will play out. The other potential issue is scoring depth. After Datsyuk and Zetterberg they don’t have any big time scorers up front (their third leading scoring forward is Dan Cleary with 42 points). For Nashville they have no pressure on them and that is always a good position to be in. Some consider their season to be a resounding success just making the playoffs. We saw in the Superbowl what can happen when one team has a huge amount of pressure to win and the other team is given next to no chance of winning. I am picking Detroit in 6 but something tells me this series could very likely go the other way.

5. Boston at Montreal

   	Boston (road)	Montreal (home)
   Predicted Winner	Montreal (Some)
   Fair Odds	+126	-135
   Overall Record	41-29-12	47-25-10
   Home/Road Record	20-13-8	22-13-6
   Last 10 Games	4-2-4	8-1-1
   Since Trade Deadline	8-6-6	13-4-1
   Past Games	2007/10/22: Boston 1 at Montreal 6 2007/11/08: Montreal 2 at Boston 1 2007/11/17: Boston 4 at Montreal 7 2007/12/06: Montreal 4 at Boston 2 2008/01/10: Montreal 5 at Boston 2 2008/01/22: Boston 2 at Montreal 8 2008/03/20: Montreal 4 at Boston 2 2008/03/22: Boston 2 at Montreal 3 (SO)

   My Prediction: There is really no sane reason why anyone would choose Boston to win this series. They have been thoroughly dominated by Montreal for a couple seasons now. Who knows what the reason for this domination is but you can’t dispute the numbers. Boston will be lucky to squeek out one win. Montreal in 5.

6. Ottawa at Pittsburgh

   	Ottawa (road)	Pittsburgh (home)
   Predicted Winner	Ottawa (Some)
   Fair Odds	-114	+112
   Overall Record	43-31-8	47-27-8
   Home/Road Record	21-16-4	26-10-5
   Last 10 Games	3-6-1	6-3-1
   Since Trade Deadline	11-6-1	7-9-2
   Past Games	2007/11/22: Pittsburgh 6 at Ottawa 5 (SO) 2007/12/13: Ottawa 4 at Pittsburgh 1 2008/02/23: Ottawa 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT) 2008/03/01: Pittsburgh 4 at Ottawa 5

   My Prediction: Ottawa has been one of the worst teams in the NHL since their 15-2 start. Pittsburgh has been one of the better teams after a poor 8-11-2 start. Pittsburgh is fairly healthy while Ottawa is without Alfredsson, Fisher and Kelly. It seems like a no-brainer that Pittsburgh should easily take this series. But Ottawa has played Pittsburgh very tough this year and Pittsburgh is still a fairly young and inexperienced team. The key for Ottawa to win this series will be to have some success early in the series to boost their confidence and put some question marks in the minds of the Penguin players. To do that they will need to focus on their defensive game, not take bad penalties and get some big time goaltending from Martin Gerber. For a significant part of the year both those things have been problems for the Senators and I don’t think they will overcome some or all of those issues. Pittsburgh in 6.

7. Philadelphia at Washington

   	Philadelphia (road)	Washington (home)
   Predicted Winner	Washington (Good)
   Fair Odds	+138	-161
   Overall Record	42-29-11	43-31-8
   Home/Road Record	21-15-5	23-15-3
   Last 10 Games	7-2-1	9-1-0
   Since Trade Deadline	11-4-4	14-4-0
   Past Games	2007/11/02: Philadelphia 3 at Washington 2 2007/11/23: Washington 4 at Philadelphia 3 (OT) 2008/01/13: Philadelphia 6 at Washington 4 2008/02/06: Washington 4 at Philadelphia 3

   My Prediction: Washington has home series advantage but Philadelphia actually had more points. But interestingly enough, home ice may be a disadvantage as the road team won all four of the games in the season series. The Capitals are kind of in the same situation as Nashville is in that they might just be happy that they have made the playoffs. The Capitals have been one of the best teams in the NHL in 2008 and have been on a ‘make the playoffs’ mission for a long time led predominantly by Alexander Ovechkin. But Ovechkin is highly competitive, loves to play hockey, and I don’t see him quitting now that they have
   made the playoffs. Plus he has a very supportive team behind him who will follow Ovechkin’s lead so I don’t see the Capitals taking it easy just happy they made the playoffs. For Philadelphia they is just one key to their playoff hopes. Will Biron (or Niittymaki) play well enough over the duration of a 7 game series and a playoff run for them to win. Both goalies have had stretches of great play and stretches of mixed play. The Flyers need consistent goaltending for them to win. I am going to stick with the hot team and pick Washington to win in 7.

8. NY Rangers at New Jersey

   	NY Rangers (road)	New Jersey (home)
   Predicted Winner	New Jersey (Some)
   Fair Odds	+120	-125
   Overall Record	42-27-13	46-29-7
   Home/Road Record	17-14-10	25-14-2
   Last 10 Games	5-1-4	4-5-1
   Since Trade Deadline	10-3-5	9-8-1
   Past Games	2007/10/25: New Jersey 0 at NY Rangers 2 2007/11/03: New Jersey 1 at NY Rangers 2 (SO) 2007/11/14: NY Rangers 4 at New Jersey 2 2007/12/09: New Jersey 0 at NY Rangers 1 (OT) 2008/02/01: NY Rangers 3 at New Jersey 1 2008/03/19: NY Rangers 2 at New Jersey 1 (SO) 2008/03/27: New Jersey 2 at NY Rangers 3 2008/04/06: NY Rangers 2 at New Jersey 3 (SO)

   My Prediction: This will be a defensive struggle if there ever was one. Both teams rely heavily on their goaltenders and this series will be no difference. Martin Brodeur has the experience but Lundqvist is more than capable of matching Brodeur’s performance. The Rangers should have a little more depth offensively so I will predict the Rangers in 6.

Season Ending Power Rankings

Here are how the Power Rankings look after the regular season. Also take a look at stats.hockeyanalysis.com for season ending player rankings and other statistics.

AdjWinP is a teams winning percentage when shootouts are considered ties and there are no points awarded for overtime losses
SchedStr is an indication of a teams relative difficulty of schedule
Power Rank is the teams expected winning percentage if team played all .500 teams

NHL Power Rankings - March 11, 2008

AdjWinP is a teams winning percentage when shootouts are considered ties and there are no points awarded for overtime losses
SchedStr is an indication of a teams relative difficulty of schedule
Power Rank is the teams expected winning percentage if team played all .500 teams

Eastern Conference: If they play like they have…

There are a number of ways of trying to predict where each team will end up in the standings come seasons end. You can simply pro-rate their current records to 82 games or you can do more complex stuff like looking at their difficulty of schedule or calculating probabilites of where they might place but here is a slightly different look that I haven’t seen elsewhere. What I have done is to look at how many games each team has remaining and then predicting that they will play those remaining number of games with the same record as their past number of games. So, if teams continue at the same pace, here is how the eastern conference will look come seasons end.

GP=Games Played
Pts=Current Points
GR=Games Remaining
RP = Points in past n games where n=GR
PredPts = Pts + RP
*Division Winners will be seeded 1,2,3

When you re-seed your playoff matchups will end up being:

New Jersey-Buffalo
Boston-Ottawa
Carolina-Montreal
Pittsburgh-NY Rangers

There are a couple interesting matchups there including Pittsburgh-NY Rangers which would be an NBC dream matchup.

One team worth watching is the Philadelphia Flyers who have seemingly turned their game around after their 10 game losing streak. As such I doubt they will finish with just 13 points in their final 16 games. More likely they get 18-20 points putting them in the 92-94 point range which would bump Buffalo out of the playoffs.

Playing a prime spoiler role will be the Toronto Maple Leafs who have most of their games left against playoff teams.

Boston-3
Buffalo-3
Montreal-2
Ottawa-2
New Jersey-2
Philadelphia-2
NY Islanders-1

That is a very tough schedule for the Leafs if they have the playoffs in mind but by playing so many teams they are chasing it does give them an opportunity to make up ground if they continue to play well.

The other team to watch is the Ottawa Senators who have been struggling significantly over the past month or so. The Senators have a tough schedule as well with 3 more west coast games (San Jose, LA and Phoenix) plus 3 games against Boston, Buffalo and Montreal and two against Toronto with single games against Carolina and St. Louis mixed in.

All in all it should be a fun playoff race where if you lose 4 or 5 games in a row you can fall from comfortable in the playoffs to on the outside looking in or vice versa with a 4 or 5 game winning streak.

Winners and Losers

Here are a few of my thoughts about the trade deadline action.

Short Term Winners

Pittsburgh Penguins – Adding Hossa, Dupuis and Gill has the potential to make them a really scary team. Think about it. In recent weeks the top line of Malkin, Sykora and Malone have been one of the best lines in the NHL and over the next week or two you will add Crosby and Hossa to fill out a 1A line. Losing Armstrong and Christensen will hurt the third line but with a top 2 lines that good they may not need a third line. In Hal Gill they add a very big, physical, defense first defenseman that will make life for opposing forwards much less pleasant. If Conklin continues his stellar play it isn’t hard to conceive that the Penguins are now easily the best team in the East.

San Jose Sharks – Brian Campbell is exactly what the Sharks needed. They have the talent up front and they have some solid defensive defensemen but what they didn’t have was that top tier puck moving defensemen and PP quarterback. Campbell is that guy. They still need some of their other players to step up their games if they want to be true Cup contenders but the Sharks should be a lot better today than they were yesterday.

Long Term Winners

Atlanta Thrashers – We knew they were going to trade Hossa but by getting two very solid young and cheap 3rd line players, a good prospect and a first round pick they got more than I thought they would. They now have some young depth role players that they very much needed and if they can add a nice centerman in the off season with the money they saved from Hossa they will have the makings of a nice core of players.

Losers

Montreal Canadiens – If you think you have a chance to make a run in the playoffs I don’t understand the thought process of trading your top and only established goalie for a second round pick. The Canadiens are now rushing Price to the NHL and while he has looked great at times he has looked mediocre at times too. Rushing goalies to the NHL is never a good thing. Just look at Marc-Andre Fleury as evidence. This move puts Price’s confidence and development at risk. On top of that GM Bob Gainey was talking for a couple weeks about wanting a big name player to add to the team but he came up empty here too. He wasn’t even able to add some needed size to the line up. Overall the Canadiens are not as good a team after this evening as they were this morning.

Vancouver Canucks – The Canucks aren’t losers because they made a bad trade but they are losers because they weren’t able to make a trade they desperately needed. That is to add some much needed offense to the lineup. With a bit more offensive punch they could have been a threat in the playoffs. Instead they may not make the playoffs.

Undetermined

Dallas Stars - I am partly surprised that they didn’t have to give up more to get Richards but Richards with his huge contract is also a significant long term risk. No doubt that Richards will help the Stars but will he help them to the tune of $7.8 million salary? Last year Richards got 70 points and he is on about the same pace this year. That’s not bad but that’s not $7.8 million value. People will say that it is largely due to the fact doesn’t play regularly with top level players which is partly true (he does play on the top PP unit) but he also plays in the horrific defensive southeast division. Richards has 28 points in 23 games against southeast division opponents and 29 points in 39 games against the rest of the league. That is 60 point pace against non-southeast opponents and I can assure you he isn’t going to a team in Dallas that is loaded with offensive players. Maybe this trade will invigorate Richards and he will return to his 90 point form but that is far from a certainty and until we see what Richards does we don’t know if Dallas does well in this trade or not.

Ottawa Senators – If you go by acquisition cost, Martin Lapointe’s value is somewhere between Wade Belak and Rob Davison. That would indicate that Lapointe won’t mean a whole lot to the Senators and he probably won’t. But the Senators have the talent to make a run in the playoffs regardless of what they did today but they are also in a downward spiral and if they can’t turn it around and they exit the playoffs early I am sure we will all look back at this trade deadline and say they should have done more.

Could the Senators miss the playoffs?

It is a crazy thought but could the Senators miss the playoffs? You may think it is rediculous to think that the Senators could miss the playoffs but the Senators are only 9 points out of 9th spot currently held by the Philadelphia Flyers who a few short weeks ago were in as comfortable a playoff position as the Senators are now. The Senators are a dismal 4-6-2 in their last dozen games and with several important important games coming up followed by a tough west coast trip they have to turn their game around soon.

Tomorrow (Tuesday) the Senators play the 7th Boston Bruins and Thursday they play the 8/9th place Flyers. On Saturday they have strong Pittsburgh Penguins after which they go on a tough west coast road trip with games against Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles and Phoenix before coming back east for games with Boston and Montreal. If the Senators can play .500 or above during that span of 9 games their playoff hopes look good but that is a real tough schedule.

The star forwards on the Senators are currently playing horrible hockey. Fisher has just one point in 11 games. Alfredsson has 2 in 7 games while Heatley and Spezza both have 3 in 7 games. A Senators fan might hope for a big time trade deadline deal to turn the team around and while that is possible it is actually fairly rare that a deadline deal has a major immediate impact on a team. Plus one of their biggest problems since their hot 15-2 start has been inconsistent goaltending and I can assure you that the Senators are unlikely to be able to address that weakness before tomorrow’s trade deadline.

It certainly would have been unbelievable after the first month and a half of the season and even a few weeks ago but if the Senators can’t turn their fortunes and struggle for the next couple weeks they could certainly find themselves on the outside looking in come playoff time.

NHL Power Rankings - Feb. 20, 2008

Unfortunately it has been a while since I posted these rankings so here they are.

AdjWinP is a teams winning percentage when shootouts are considered ties and there are no points awarded for overtime losses
SchedStr is an indication of a teams relative difficulty of schedule
Power Rank is the teams expected winning percentage if team played all .500 teams

Southeast Division: Buyer Beware…

Today we saw the first significant trade leading up to this years trade deadline as the Ottawa Senators traded Patrick Eaves and Joe Corvo to Carolina for Cory Stillman and Mike Commodore. Although this trade should help the Sens this season, a word of caution has to be put out concerning the trading for players from the southeast division.

The southeast division is one horrible division and it could be argued that 5 of the worst 10 teams in the league play in the southeast division. A big reason for this is bad defenses and outright horrible goaltending (Tomas Vokoun aside). The three worst teams in terms of team save percentage are Tampa (.881), Washington (.889) and Carolina (.891) while Atlanta (.904) is a marginally more respectable 12th worst. Because of this weak goaltending offensive players who play in the southeast division often look better than they probably are. Cory Stillman is a perfect example.

Cory Stillman vs SE division: 18GP, 11G, 11A, 22PTS
Cory Stillman vs rest of league: 37GP, 10G, 14A, 25PTS

In double the games he has fewer goals and only slightly more points.

And it isn’t just Stillman. Here are a few other big name trade acquisition possibilities.

Marian Hossa vs SE: 19GP, 11G, 10A, 21PTS
Marian Hossa vs Others: 36GP, 13G, 14A, 27PTS

Olli Jokinen vs SE: 20GP, 9g, 15a, 24pts
Olli Jokinen vs others: 38GP, 20g, 14a, 34pts

Jokinen has actually done well in terms of scoring goals against the rest of the league but his overall point totals are still lower.

Vaclav Prospal vs SE: 22GP, 12g, 15a, 27pts
Vaclav Prospal vs others: 34GP, 11g, 13a, 24pts

When it comes to acquiring offensive players from the southeast division it is definitely a case of buyer beware. They may not be everything you hoped they would be.

Alternate view of Standings

When one looks at the standings one often gets an incorrect view of them due to the difference in number of games played. For example, Buffalo trails the Rangers by 3 points but this is deceiving because the Sabre’s actually have the better win percentage having played 4 fewer games. What I prefer to look at is how many games above .500 is each team. Here is what we get for the eastern conference.

Based on the above you see that Ottawa, Philadelphia, Montreal, Pittsburgh and New Jersey are all in very good shape to make the playoffs barring a major catastrophe for any of them. Beyond those teams you will get one team from the southeastern division making the playoffs. The edge would go to Washington because they currently have the best record but they are also playing the best hockey right now. But realistically none of the teams can be counted out as none of them are likely good enough to pull away from the pack and all are capable of sticking with the group. That will leave the final 2 playoff spots to be decided between Boston, Buffalo and the NY Rangers. I like Buffalo to make it because I think they have the most talent but they have also been the streakiest teams in the NHL this season with some really long winning streaks and some really long losing streaks. The Rangers have been really inconsistent as well looking like an elite team one night and a complete dud the next. Drury isn’t living up to his contract, Jagr is unpredictable and hasn’t found the chemistry with Gomez he had with Nylander, and Lundqvist is looking over worked. Meanwhile Boston has just been cruising along all season neither looking spectacular, nor looking bad. They have benefitted a lot from some great Tim Thomas goaltending and so long as that continues they have a great shot at the playoffs. The Bruins and Sabres have 3 games remaining against each other starting with a game tonight in Buffalo and ending with a game in Boston the final Saturday of the season. The Bruins also have one game against the Rangers while the Sabres play the Rangers three more times. These games could go a long way to determining which two of these teams makes the playoffs.

Now for the western conference.

The first thing you will notice is how rediculously good Detroit is. The second surprise might be Dallas in second spot. Some wrote them off as contenders early in the year when GM Doug Armstrong was fired but they have fought hard to keep pace with everyone but Detroit. I still think coach Dave Tippett deserves some serious coach of the year consideration for what he has done in Dallas this year and the past several years.

At this time last year in the western conference pretty much all 8 playoff spots were set. The Colorado Avalanche posted a late season surge to make it close but realistically at this point in the year last year the playoff teams were decided. This year is clearly different as only 3 teams, Los Angeles, Edmonton and Chicago would be considered very long shots to make the playoffs. If I had to guess I would say that St. Louis and Columbus are pretty good bets to miss the playoffs as well but of the other 10 teams anything can happen. Phoenix is currently 2 games back of Calgary but they have been one of the best teams in the NHL since they acquited Bryzgalov and have to be considered serious contenders for a playoff spot. Vancouver has struggled a bit recently thanks in large part to a rash of injuries on defense. Bieksa, Miller, Krajicek and Miller have all been out but if they can get a few of them healthy and in the lineup the Canucks should be in line for the post season. The teams that need to be watching the Canucks and Coyotes from below are the Avalanche, Nashville and Calgary as these are the teams I believe are most likely to fall. But the Avalanche are set to have Paul Stastny return from his apedectomy surgery on Saturday and Ryan Smyth should be returning from his broken ankle late February and Sakic may return from his hernia surgery in March so they have some postives happening too. Plus it would not surprise me if they win the Peter Forsberg sweepstakes which we may find out in the next week or two.

And speaking of Forsberg, that is where things get interesting. Where Forsberg decides to go could have a significant impact on trade deadline happenings, particularly if he chooses one of the bubble teams in the western conference like Colorado or Vancouver. It is going to be interesting to see how the teams react to where Forsberg ends up and whether they desperate move at the trade deadline to keep pace.

Is Paul Maurice a Good Coach?

It seems the common wisdom and general consensus amongst the Toronto media and fans is that Maurice is a decent to good coach and is not to blame in any significant way for the Leafs woes this season. But is Paul Maurice really a good coach? I personally don’t think so.

A lot of people point to how Maurice took the Carolina Hurricanes to the Stanley Cup finals in 2001-02 as evidence of his good coaching ability. Certainly he has to be given some credit for that but on the flip side if we assume that the Leafs won’t make the playoffs this season Maurice coached teams will have missed the playoffs in 7 of 10 seasons. That isn’t a record to be proud of or one that I would consider evidence of good coaching ability. Add to that his 7-12-8-2 record in the year he was fired in Carolina and you could easily argue that his historical track record is quite horrible.

But let’s take a closer look at what he has done with the Leafs. In 2005-06 the Leafs were coached by Pat Quinn and finished the season with a 41-33-8 record narrowly missing the playoffs. This Pat Quinn team featured a defense that included Alexander Khavanov and Aki Berg neither of whom played another game in the NHL and who were essentially replaced by Pavel Kubina and Hal Gill. Regardless of what you think of the contracts given to those two players you all have to agree that Kubina and Gill are vast upgrades over Berg and Khavanov. Also on the Pat Quinn team was Jason Allison and Tie Domi who haven’t played another game in the NHL and Eric Lindros, who had one more largely unsuccessful campaign in Dallas before retiring. In essence that Pat Quinn team that ended up with 92 points had 5 fringe players on the roster 4 of whom never played in the NHL again but Quinn managed to get them to 92 points.

But the following season Maruice took an improved team (on paper) from 92 points to 91 points and a 40-31-11 record. That was followed up with this season where Maurice essentially has the same team as last year with better goaltending (Toskala) and a 40 goal scorer (Blake) and turned the team into a team on pace for 76 points. Something doesn’t seem right.

But what may be more of a statement against Maurice is what he has done with the Leafs special teams. In 2005-06 under Quinn the Leafs power play was one of the best in the league with a 21.4% success rate while the PK% was 80%. In Maurice’s first season the power play dropped to 17.7% and the penalty kill to a near league worst 78.5%. This season the Leafs powerplay is a dreadful 13.9% (only the Blues are worse) and the Leafs penalty kill is 78.5% (only Carolina is worse). A huge part of the Leafs problems this season and last can be attributed to their bad special teams play. This is nothing new as Paul Maurice coached teams have rarely had good powerplay or penalty kill percentages. In the year he took Carolina to the Stanley Cup finals the Hurricanes were 20th in the league in PK% and 12th in the league in PP%.

In summary, seven of ten Maurice coached teams missed the playoffs, Maurice coached teams have poor special teams play, and Maurice led a more talented Leaf team to fewer points than the less talented Pat Quinn team. Is Maurice a good coach? The evidence says certainly not.